The MRR You Think vs The MRR You'll Get
Most founders overestimate their MRR by 3-5x. Here's how to get a realistic number before you build.
You've done the math.
1,000 users at $29/month = $29K MRR. Easy.
Except you won't get 1,000 users. Not in year one. Probably not in year two.
The math isn't wrong. The assumptions are.
Why Founders Overestimate MRR
Three reasons:
1. They count the market, not the slice
"There are 50 million freelancers in the US."
Sure. But how many need your specific tool? How many will find you? How many will pay? 50 million becomes 500,000 becomes 5,000 becomes 200 paying customers. That's $5,800/month, not $1.4M.
2. They assume conversion rates from mature companies
Stripe converts at 7%. Notion converts at 4%.
You're not Stripe. You're not Notion. You have no brand, no SEO, no word of mouth. Your conversion rate is 0.5% if you're lucky.
3. They skip the "finding customers" part
Building the product is 20% of the work. Finding people who will pay is 80%.
That $29K MRR assumes customers magically appear. They don't.
What Actually Determines Your MRR
Three things:
How crowded is the space?
More competitors = harder to get attention = lower MRR. Not because your product is worse. Because nobody knows you exist.
What can you realistically charge?
Look at competitors. If they charge $19/month, you're not charging $99. The market already set the price. Your MRR ceiling is: (realistic price) x (realistic customers).
How will people find you?
No distribution channel = no customers = no MRR. If your plan is "post on Twitter and hope," your realistic MRR is close to zero.
Real Numbers From 200+ Ideas
We built an MRR estimator. Fed it 200+ startup ideas. Here's what the data shows:
| Business Model | Target | Year 1 Range |
|---|---|---|
| Subscription | B2B | $8K - $35K/mo |
| Subscription | B2C | $2K - $15K/mo |
| One-time | B2B | $5K - $25K/mo |
| One-time | B2C | $1K - $10K/mo |
| Freemium | B2C | $500 - $8K/mo |
Notice the ranges. A B2B subscription SaaS could hit $35K/month or struggle at $8K. The difference isn't the idea. It's execution, timing, and competition.
The $100K MRR Fantasy
Every founder secretly thinks they'll hit $100K MRR in year one.
The math:
3,500 customers at $29/month.
The reality:
3,500 paying customers in 12 months means acquiring 300 customers per month. Every month. Starting from zero. At a 2% conversion rate, that's 15,000 visitors per month from day one.
Do you have a plan to get 15,000 targeted visitors per month? If not, $100K MRR isn't realistic.
How to Get a Realistic Number
Check your competition
Find 5 competitors. Look at their pricing. Look at their reviews (gives you a customer count estimate). That's your ceiling, not your floor.
Be honest about distribution
Write down exactly how customers will find you. "Social media" doesn't count. "200 cold emails per week to CFOs at mid-size companies" counts.
Use real data
We built a free tool that estimates MRR based on 200+ startup analyses. Not the number you want. The number you'll probably get.
What's your realistic MRR?
Get your estimate (free) →What To Do With a Low Estimate
A low MRR estimate isn't a death sentence. It's information.
Raise the ceiling
Move from B2C to B2B. B2B pays 3-5x more for the same solution.
Narrow the niche
"Project management for everyone" competes with Asana. "Project management for wedding planners" has a smaller ceiling but you can own it.
Change the model
One-time purchases cap your growth. Subscriptions compound. Same product, different math.
The Point
Your MRR estimate isn't about predicting the future. It's about killing bad assumptions before they kill your startup.
$8K/month might sound disappointing. But $8K/month that actually happens beats $100K/month that never does.
Get a realistic number. Then build.
Stop guessing. Start with real data.
Check your MRR potential →Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is an MRR estimate?
It's a range, not a guarantee. The point is to sanity-check your assumptions against real market data. If you're expecting $50K and the data says $8K-15K, something needs to change.
What's a "good" MRR for year one?
For a bootstrapped solo founder, $5K-10K MRR in year one is solid. That's $60K-120K ARR. Most startups make $0.
Does business model matter that much?
Yes. B2B subscription is the highest ceiling. B2C freemium is the lowest. Same idea, different model, 5x difference in realistic MRR.
Should I pivot if my estimate is low?
Not necessarily. A low estimate means: narrow niche, heavy competition, or weak distribution. Fix those first. Pivot if nothing moves the number.
How do I increase my MRR potential?
Three ways: charge more (B2B > B2C), reduce competition (niche down), or improve distribution (actual plan to reach customers).
Want to run this process in 60 seconds?
Test Your Idea analyzes your startup idea against live market data—competitors, demand signals, and risk factors—using the same frameworks VCs use.
Audit My Idea (Free)→Free audit. Takes 60 seconds.